Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Football may be underway, but we’ve still got a few weeks of baseball left. The contest payouts may be a little smaller these days, but there’s still money to be made. There’s quite a bit of day baseball on the schedule for this Saturday, but we’re here to talk about the solid 5-game main slate this evening. Ownership figures to congregate around a few of the more expensive pitchers, which means a few popular stacks should emerge too.
How should we stack things up this Saturday night?
The Chalk Stack – Rangers vs.
The Rangers have been floundering for weeks, but they do find themselves in a favorable spot again tonight at home against and the A’s. Texas has an implied run total of 6.09 in this one, which puts them ever so slightly ahead of the Braves (6.08) for the highest on the slate.
Through 15 outings – including 13 starts – Muller’s posted an uninspiring 16% strikeout rate, a 10.8% walk rate, and a miserable 7.62 ERA. His 5.36 SIERA tells us that ERA is a bit more bloated than it should be, but we’ll still gladly stack against anyone with a 5.36 SIERA. Muller’s 12.3% barrel rate is among the highest in the sport this season, and the BABIP gods (.371) have not been on his side.
The lefty has yielded a .410 wOBA with 11 homers to righties, but lefties (.444 wOBA, 3 HR) have done damage too. The conclusion? Just stack anyone in the Texas lineup regardless of handedness. (.389 wOBA, .238 ISO) has acquitted himself quite well against same-handed pitching, while (.255 ISO) has been their best righty power threat with on the IL.
I’ll side with (.421 wOBA) over the possibly-still-injured among the Rangers’ catching options, while and certainly make the cut in any stack. The Rangers also just called up top prospect Evan Carter on Friday, which gives the stack a much-needed source of value at just $2,000 on DraftKings.
The problem with stacking the Rangers is that they won’t be flying under any radars. The stack is projecting for about 25% ownership on DraftKings compared to a 19.6% chance of being optimal. Similar story on FanDuel with 20.4% stack pOWN and an 18.2% opto%. Both marks are the highest on the board on both sites.
The PlateIQ Projections Leverage Stack – Pirates at
The Braves are a great stack on this slate because they’re a great stack on every slate, so you don’t need me to tell you that. But what about the team on the other side of the same game? The Pirates only have a 3.92 implied run total against , but Dodd is hardly a pitcher we should be avoiding.
The rookie left-hander has only started 5 games for the Braves, and he’s pitched to a 7.40 ERA alongside a 5.95 SIERA. The strikeouts (10.5%) have been non-existent, and he’s been barreled up more than 15% of the time.
Most importantly, the Pirates are cheap. Seven of the nine hitters in the projected lineup will run you $3,500 or less on DraftKings, while and are the only bats above $3,000 on FanDuel. Ke’Bryan Hayes (.238 ISO) has been Pittsburgh’s best bat against left-handed pitching, while (.211 ISO) tends to hit cleanup in these matchups. Reynolds is a core play in a Pirates stack, while Yankees legend Miguel Andujar (.355 wOBA, .255 ISO) has shown signs of life in a small sample of work so far this season.
I like and as cheapies to fill those thin second base and catcher spots, while you can always hunt power with Suwinski. Pittsburgh is projecting for some ownership on DK (10.7%), but their opto% (14.3%) is the second-highest on the DK slate. They’re projecting for slight negative leverage on FD with 10.8% pOWN and 9.7% opto%.
