A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

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The Key Personnel article will continue through the playoffs (at least through the Divisional Round), but this is the last full slate of the season. I appreciate you joining me for the slate breakdown each week and hope that it has helped many of you. This article makes me do a much deeper dive than I would otherwise, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that I’m having my best NFL season in years. I’m usually ready for the playoffs to start by this time, but the last few weeks have been so good (big shoutout to ) that I don’t want the big slates to end. But you know what they say- all good things must come to an end.

As far as this week goes, many refer to this as the information slate. It’s not quite as crazy as the preseason, but we have to be tuned into the injury reports and the beat writers for each team. We also have to know the motivations of the players and the teams, as some have a lot on the line while others are ready to start their off-season vacation plans. Keep in mind that a lot can change from now to lineup lock, so keep up to date with the final thoughts from all of the experts by visiting the Consensus Value Rankings, the Expert Survey, and LineupHQ. I will be keeping all three up to date right until lock on Sunday.

One last main slate. Let’s go!

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 18 (Main Slate)

Quarterback

SALARY-SAVING EXPERT PLAY TAGS

: $6,100 DK / $7,300 FD
: $5,100 DK / $7,100 FD

There are so many good options at quarterback this week that you don’t have to follow my lead here. However, I like the way the matchup sets up for . He’s affordable, and the Seahawks have to win to make the playoffs. Smith has struggled under pressure this season but has very good numbers when he is given time in the pocket. On the season, the Cardinals are 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sacks per game. On top of that, they are 26th or worse in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Smith has elite weapons, an elite matchup, and all the motivation we could ask for.

The Vikings tried to give a chance last week against the Packers, but he was nothing short of terrible. He was benched early in the game for , who has been announced as the starter for Week 18. The Vikings are technically still alive in the playoff hunt, so they will go all out to win this game against the Lions. And beyond that, Mullens is looking to put some good football on tape for his future. We know he likes to take chances, and the biggest weakness for the Lions’ defense this season has been giving up the big play in the passing game. I think Mullens has more upside than most of the punts at quarterback.

VIABLE SPEND-UP OPTIONS

We have plenty of value at every position, so all types of lineup builds are viable this week. My favorite spend is and it’s not particularly close. The Cowboys will win their division with a victory this week and are facing the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders are 32nd in DVOA against the pass, 31st in dropback EPA, and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Prescott has had some huge fantasy outings in the second half of the season and has an obvious stacking mate whom we will get to shortly. It’s hard to envision a bad outing from Prescott even if the game gets out of hand early.

has been very productive in fantasy this season, but he has cost me a lot of money in the betting market. The Eagles have some really bad losses on their resume, and a number of them have come from bad decisions made by Hurts late in games. With that said, the Eagles can still win the division if the Commanders somehow pull off the upset against the Cowboys. We also have the narrative that the Eagles will want to have a dominant performance before heading to the playoffs. The tush-push remains undefeated, and he draws an excellent matchup against the Giants.

I’m going back and forth on what to do with this week. The Bears have nothing to play for, although the coaching staff wants to prove that they should be brought back and Fields is still fighting to stay with the team. Many are saying the Bears will draft a quarterback and trade Fields in the offseason, and if that’s the plan, why risk him getting injured in a meaningless game? And then we have the rivalry angle, as the Bears can knock the Packers out of the playoffs with a win. There’s certainly a lot going on here. If Fields does play the entire game, he should have a big day against the Packers, who have been atrocious on defense over the last month of play.

PUNTS, PUNTS, AND MORE PUNTS

I get the feeling that at least one of these quarterback punts are going to go for 25+ fantasy points and end up on the optimal lineup. The problem is that all of them feature a wide range of potential outcomes. This is really a guessing game, but I’ll cover all of the viable options. We’ll start with , who gets to face a Chiefs team that is resting starters. He’s topped 17 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games and projects well. Next up is , who has bounced around the league since 2018. His biggest strength is his rushing ability, which is a positive in my eyes. He draws an elite matchup against the Bengals and is very affordable on all sites.

Whoa, is still in the league? That’s the reaction that I had when the Rams announced him as the starter. There is nothing on the line for the Rams or the Niners, which really makes this a tough situation to predict. However, Wentz gets to play in a good system and could be facing a bunch of backups. He won’t have the best weapons at his disposal, but he’s a strong tournament play. will draw another start for the Broncos, this one against the Raiders. Sean Payton seems intent on proving that he doesn’t need , so he’ll look to feature Stidham. And finally, is cheap enough on FanDuel that he’s worth a look. He won’t have the elite weapons to work with, but he’s at home facing a Rams team that has nothing to play for.

Running Back

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

: $6,300 DK / $6,800 FD
: $4,600 DK / $5,700 FD

Much like at quarterback, we have no shortage of options at running back this week. The popular build will be to punt at least two of the running back spots to spend up at other positions. While it’s hard to argue with that approach, I do like spending up on at least one of the running back spots. My favorite is , who has racked up 247 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards over the last 2 games. He’s as healthy as he’s been all season and he doesn’t have much competition for touches now that has been ruled out. Even though the Packers are in a must-win situation, Jones isn’t garnering much ownership. This is likely because the Bears have been very tough against the run. However, Chicago has allowed the 2nd most receptions, the most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. The Packers haven’t used Jones a ton in the passing game this season, but they would be smart to do so this week.

is expected to draw the start for the Niners this week. should be active and they’ll have a third running back active as well, but Mason is expected to handle the bulk of the work. He’s been a special teamer for most of the season, so many think Kyle Shanahan will reward him with the opportunity to start this week. He’s going to be popular, but he has a chance at 20 touches in a home matchup against the Rams. Granted, both teams are going to be resting starters, but that could result in this being a higher-scoring game if these defenses aren’t at full strength. Ultimately, we are chasing cheap volume here.

VIABLE SPEND-UP OPTIONS

Given all of the value at the position, ownership on the mid-range running backs is pretty spread out. I already mentioned Jones, and I also love the spot for a few others. We’ll start with , who is playing in a meaningful game against the Panthers. The Buccaneers need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. We’ve seen Jones and run all over the Panthers the last two weeks, and we can expect more of the same for White. He’s been terrific all year, offering one of the highest floors at his position. He’s facing the worst run defense in the NFL and he’s not garnering much ownership. Sign me up.

You can use as a leverage play against the passing game or as a complementary piece in hopes of securing all of the Cowboys’ offensive touchdowns. Starting with Prescott and Pollard will certainly be unique, and it’s hard to argue with since the Cowboys have the highest team total on the board. We all know how bad the Commanders have been against the pass this season, but they haven’t been that much better against the run in the second half of the season. They have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to running backs, so Pollard has a path to a big outing at reasonable ownership.

We’ll see what happens when the cards flip over on Sunday, but it looks like is going to be the most popular non-punt running back play of the week. Josh Jacobs has been ruled out, and while the Raiders have been eliminated from the playoffs, they are playing for their head coach to get the full-time job next season. It has been encouraging to see White get a bunch of carries when the Raiders have had a lead (Week 16) and a bunch of targets when they have been playing with a deficit (Week 17).

You can certainly make a case for , , and , but we can’t play everyone this week. They are on the outside looking in when it comes to my player pool. I do have my eye on for tournaments, as the Seahawks are playing in a must-win game and draw one of the best matchups on the slate. The Cardinals are 31st in DVOA against the run and dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Walker has struggled with consistency this season but has home run type of upside. That’s what we should be looking for in tournaments, especially this week.

PUNTS, PUNTS, AND MORE PUNTS

The chalk build this week is with two punt running backs. Mason will be the most popular, followed closely by . The Browns haven’t ruled out and yet, but they are resting players in the passing game. It’s expected that Hunt and Ford will be limited in a meaningless game. This should result in a sizable workload for Strong, who draws one of the best matchups on the slate. The Bengals are 28th in DVOA against the run and 27th in rush EPA. If Strong sees 15+ touches in this matchup, he should easily exceed salary-based expectations.

For whatever reason, isn’t getting as much ownership as Mason and Strong. He’s in a very similar spot as those two yet might have even less competition for targets. The Rams have already ruled out . They still have and , but Rivers is the most appealing of the bunch. A matchup against the Niners looks tough on paper, but we can expect San Francisco’s best defensive players to be limited in this meaningless game.

If you want value that’s not going to be popular, we might be able to look to the Chiefs. is questionable, but they don’t have much of a reason to play him. There’s nothing on the line, and he has dealt with a lot of injuries this season. is expected to play, but there’s a good chance his snaps will be limited. Could we see a big workload for La’Mical Perine? He’s priced around the likes of Mason, Strong, and Rivers, yet he’s garnering much lower ownership.

Wide Receiver

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

: $9,300 DK / $10,000 FD
: $8,500 DK / $9,000 FD

My two tags at wide receiver are going to be the chalk, but they are the best plays on the slate. I’m fine eating this chalk and will look to differentiate elsewhere. There are more question marks on these cheap running backs and wide receivers, so those are the spots that make the most sense to be contrarian. As for , he gets to face the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington is 31st or worse in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They also have one of the lowest pressure rates since the trade deadline. The Cowboys need to win this game, so they won’t pull their starters unless they get out to a huge lead. And if that happens, Lamb was likely involved in the scoring.

is more of a wildcard than Lamb, but not by much. The Vikings are technically still alive in the playoff race and they draw a nice matchup at home against the Lions. As noted above with Mullens, Detroit’s biggest weakness has been giving up the big play in the passing game (they let Lamb go for 227 yards and a TD last week). Mullens is not afraid to take chances down the field, and Jefferson is a good bet to see double-digit targets. In this same matchup in Week 16, he caught 6-of-10 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown.

VIABLE SPEND-UP OPTIONS

There will be a lot of similar-looking lineups this week. It’s easy to plug in a couple of cheap running backs, Lamb, and Jefferson. Having a different construction is always good, but there are also ways to get different with that common build. I don’t want to give away my whole lineup, but I have a build with three punt plays at running back and then Lamb, Jefferson, and at wide receiver. has been ruled out for the Eagles and as noted above, Philadelphia can technically still win their division. They also need to right the ship before heading into the playoffs. Brown should feast on a secondary that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

doesn’t really have any contract incentives, but he doesn’t need them after signing that big deal with the Raiders. While they can’t make the playoffs, the players want to win for Antonio Pierce, who seems likely to come back as the full-time coach next year. If you are worried about Adams being limited, he saw 21 targets in a meaningless game last week. He’s still one of the most talented receivers in the NFL and Aidan O’Connell has no issue when it comes to peppering him with targets.

My plan this week is to play one Chicago stack and fade them everywhere else. As noted above with Fields, I have mixed feelings on Chicago’s motivations. However, if we do get a full game from their stars, we can expect big things from . He has already topped 100 yards five times with Fields under center this season and gets to face a Packers defense that is 27th in DVOA against the pass. The floor is low, but the ceiling makes him a strong tournament play.

became the chalk last week. I ate the chalk and had to watch and both crush against the Buccaneers. It was not pleasant, but that bad outing from Olave has led to a very low ownership projection this week. The matchup is more difficult, but the Saints have to win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. We’ve seen Olave have a lot of bad outings and several huge outings this season. He’s the perfect tournament play when he’s not popular.

I don’t get the love for this week. While I like Geno, I prefer pairing him with or . Lockett just hasn’t shown much upside, and he’s projecting so well that he will naturally garner ownership. I’m not saying you can’t play Lockett, but he seems over-owned for the spot. Meanwhile, Metcalf has 5 touchdowns over the last 5 games and has topped 100 yards two times during that stretch. The matchup is solid for everyone on the Seahawks, as the Cardinals might have the worst defense in the NFL.

PUNTS, PUNTS, AND MORE PUNTS

We have to start this section with , who should be $2,000 more expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s priced at the stone minimum because the sites didn’t think he would be available for this game. It’s hard to argue with the play if Kirk is active. When sites make mistakes, it’s usually best to take the free square. The matchup is elite (the Titans are a pass funnel), the Jaguars have the division title on the line, and Kirk has had several big outings this season. It looks like he’s a game-time decision, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status leading up to lock.

The rest of the plays in this range carry more risk than Kirk. The Niners are expected to rest or limit their stars in this one, so we should see a lot of and . It’s the same situation for the Rams on the other side of this game. We will likely see for as long as it takes him to get the rookie records, but then the Rams will take him out of the game. They’ll lean on , , and . And we also have the Chiefs, who have ruled out . , , and are expected to be the top receivers for Kansas City.

Tight End

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

: $6,000 DK / $6,700 FD

I only have one tight end tagged this week because the position is wide open. Much like I do with defense, I like the idea of leaving this spot open and building the rest of your team first. Then, you can see how much you have available to spend at tight end. My favorite expensive option is , who continues to be one of the top target earners at the position. The Cardinals don’t have anything on the line, but they don’t seem to know that. They just pulled off an incredible win against the Eagles and now have a chance to keep their division rival out of the playoffs. It’s a great matchup on paper, as the Seahawks are a bottom-five pass defense.

EVERYONE ELSE

We will cover these quickly, but I wanted to hit on all of the tight ends that could make my player pool. The first is , who gives you access to the Cowboys passing attack at much lower ownership than Lamb. The Commanders have been tough on the position, but he is always live to score a touchdown. should see an uptick in target share with Smith out and gets to face the Giants, who are very beatable through the air. The Chargers are still very thin at wideout, so we could see get peppered with targets. After being the chalk that busted last week, he should fly under the radar.

Now, let’s talk about the pure punts. will continue to start for the injured and provides some nice leverage off of Jefferson, could be the TE1 for most of the game against the Chargers, will likely serve as the TE1 for the Niners if they decide to limit or rest , could see the majority of the snaps at tight end for the Browns, and could see the majority of the snaps for the Rams. All of these options are risky, yet they are all viable punts. Gray is probably my favorite of the bunch, but he’s also expected to be the most popular.

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Thanks for joining me this season. Let’s have one last big week before we turn our attention to the playoffs!

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