Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.

Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.

In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.

First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.

NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 18

STACKS

FD CHALK – Bills at Dolphins

Sunday Night Football is making a one-week comeback to the main slate in this meaningful game. And it’s FanDuel doing the deed for us and FanDuel only. The novelty of the game only being on FanDuel along with the skill of , the Vegas line, and how damn meaningful this game is makes the Bills seem like the safest stack on the slate.

I don’t believe in the word “safe,” but the field does, and that’s all that matters in terms of projecting ownership. We currently have the Bills at ~14% ownership in MME – which is bonkers, considering Allen’s $9,500 price tag. Usually, I’m pretty conservative with boosting a play like this on a slate this large, but the circumstances and the wealth of value at RB suggest that we could see Allen’s ownership in the 30s with a significant percentage of the field stacking him with . On FD, everyone wants a part of the Bills. Even is gonna catch some ownership near the double-digits.

If I’m eating the Allen ownership, I’m offsetting it with a ~5% as the pivot off of Diggs and running it back with .

PROJECTION — Cowboys at Commanders

The Cowboys are playing to win and they have to play to slaughter, as they shouldn’t leave any breathing room for the Commanders to play spoiler.

The circumstances with the amount of firepower the Cowboys possess against the terrible Commanders make them the stack of the week.

The Commanders have given up the most TD passes and the second-most passing YPG this season, and comes into Week 18 leading the league in TD passes and fifth in passing YPG. leads the league in targets and receptions, while being behind only Hill in receiving YPG.

The bad news is that the Cowboys are very obvious, so we’ll have to make some ugly value plays to create lineups with some teeth.

Pure spidey senses here, but the Bills and Cowboys could combine for 50-55% ownership on FanDuel and the Cowboys around 25% on DraftKings.

Like the pivot, Brandin Cooks has seen a 13.6 aDOT this season. His volume is erratic, but he does have four TDs in the last six games. I don’t like leaving Lamb off of our Cowboys stacks, but we could be different by double stacking without a run back, as the Cowboys don’t need a competitive game to pound the metal.

Vegas has the Cowboys as the top-scoring team this week, by far, with a 30.5 implied total.

CHALK VALUE — Vikings at Lions

isn’t a very good QB, but the Vikings are playing in the dome in Detroit, and he did throw for 411 yards against this Lions teams in Week 16 after throwing for 303 in Cincinnati the week before.

The point is that Mullens can put up numbers and feed 10 times a game. That’s all we care about.

The concern on DraftKings is that his ownership is gonna skyrocket into the 20s as the top value play. I’d rather play the Vikings on FanDuel where they’ll be in the 5% range.

LEVERAGE – Packers vs. Bears

My DraftKings direction is likely the Packers in a very meaningful game against a hot-or-cold defense but at home, where home field advantage might mean a little bit more than most places.

is projected as the fourth-best QB on DraftKings and fifth-best on FanDuel. He’s very affordable and could be sub-5% owned in single-entry.

What more do we want?

If the struggle is pairing Love with someone about whom we feel good, we need to throw the feel-goods to hell in Week 18. Most of what we do isn’t gonna feel good.

has seen 8, 8, 10, 5, and 8 targets over his last five games, while could come back. Watson participated fully in the final two practices of the week. We all know how electric he can be. His TDs might seem fluky, but they’re not when you’re talking about a 15.6 aDOT.

My point is that Love’s stacking partner shouldn’t be something we worry about. We can just pick one of these two and be fine to move on to other roster decisions.

This is all very affordable and can break the slate.

FD LEVERAGE — Dolphins vs. Bills

But on the FanDuel, I’m just playing the Dolphins.

They might be the best offense in the league. They’ll be at home. And they’re looking at sub-5% ownership.

to Hill is the league leader in passing YPG to the league leader in receiving YPG.

Don’t overthink this.

QUARTERBACK

NAKED CHALK — at Packers

I don’t really understand why the Bears are playing everyone for a full game, but they are and that’s extra football for us to play through and think about.

Vegas and our projections say that this game is gonna be contentious. If that’s the case, is gonna have a great game because Walter Payton ain’t walkin’ through that door.

Fields will catch some ownership, but there’s a lot of flexibility in either playing him naked or with .

NAKED PIVOT – at Giants

The ownership on is about half of Prescott’s for MME despite him also playing against an awful defense in an equally meaningful game.

Prescott projects better, but Hurts is the better runner, so we could play Hurts naked with Lamb and have the best tastes of both offenses.

The Eagles aren’t the Cowboys, but they’re still really damn good.

LEVERAGE – vs. Eagles

The Eagles defense isn’t impenetrable. Only the Commanders have given up more TD passes this season, and only four teams have given up more passing YPG.

There’s a ton of value on this slate, especially at QB. I’m just gonna go with if I need to spend money.

The Giants are letting him rip it, he’s running a lot, and he’s looking really solid in the process. The Giants should have to throw a lot because of the weight on the Eagles’ shoulders.

Taylor is gonna be 1-2% owned. It’s between Love and Taylor on DraftKings and between Tagovailoa, Love, and Taylor or FanDuel. I’ll let the rest of the field dabble in guys who haven’t seen snaps this season.

RUNNING BACK

VALUE – at Bengals, vs. Rams, vs. Broncos

This is simple. , , and will be cheap bellcows.

Strong is dirt cheap and projects as having the top ceiling on the slate with as his QB.

Mason is dirt cheap and playing in the run-heaviest offense in the league with as his QB.

And White has been super solid as the replacement for Josh Jacobs. He’s seen 26, 23, and 21 opportunities in his three starts. He’s the most expensive of the value bunch but is still very, very affordable.

PIVOTS – at Panthers and at Commanders

only has nine TDs this season, but he’s averaging around 22 opportunities per game over the last nine. He faces the Panthers who have given up the most TDs to RBs this season. White should get the ball a lot in this one, opening the door for TD regression.

But it’s totally understandable if White is too expensive because isn’t going away. He’s the bellcow of a team that’s a 13.5-point favorite with a 30.5 implied total. I think just about everyone and their momma is gonna put a Cowboy in their lineup though, and if I’m gonna be one of those droolers (I will probably be one of those droolers), my go-to is Lamb on DraftKings. It’s mainly FanDuel where Hill is available that I will keep Pollard in mind because Hill-Lamb is tough to afford.

LEVERAGE – at Titans

Only once since Oct. 29 has had 20 opportunities. This is absolutely baffling. But if sits in a meaningful game, the Jaguars will be forced to get the ball in Etienne’s hands early and often.

Normally, we can ignore a back who’s not being utilized, but the field is gonna do so, and there’s a strong chance he does get used a ton.

WIDE RECEIVER

PROJECTION — at Giants

has averaged nearly 10 targets per game and a double-digit aDOT with sharing the love. No Smith should equal more high-value targets his way, and the projections agree. No flex player on the slate has a higher ceiling projection than Brown. Whether or not we’re playing Hurts, we should be eyeballing Brown very strongly.

LEVERAGE – Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings

Amon-Ra St. Brown just keeps projecting as a top-five WR because he’s produced for 22.1, 31.6, and 27.2 DK points over the last three games. He’s fourth in receiving YPG on the season (min. 10 games) where he’s averaged over 10 targets per game. He’s currently projecting in the ~8% range on both sites for MME, so we can expect sub-5% in single-entry.

VALUE – No One

Go to LineupHQ and sort the WRs by point-per-dollar. It stands out like a sore thumb that really good, high-priced guys are all over the list despite it being Week 18. I wanna splurge at WR and save elsewhere.

TIGHT END

VALUE – at Chargers

Everyone’s gonna play and everyone isn’t enough. sucks, but he’s gotta throw to someone, and there’s only so much that’s gonna happen. Unlike a lot of next-man-up scenarios this week, Gray played 565 snaps this season. He’s trusted in an offense that highlights the TE. I’m just playing him.

Image Credit: Getty Images