The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, July 30 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Stackability Rating System:
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
MLB DFS Analysis: (LHP | -225)
10400 DK ( 20.80% of cap) / 8600 FD ( 24.57% of cap) / 34 Y ( 17.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Rating | Statcast Metrics | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ: Overall | 58.99 | K | 32 |
| PlateIQ: Strikeout | 60.66 | BB | 64 |
| PlateIQ: Contact | 45.81 | xWOBA | 34 |
| PlateIQ: Production | 55.04 | xISO | 19 |
| PlateIQ: Discipline | 59.69 | Hard Hit | 44 |
| PlateIQ: Context | 37.90 | xERA | 39 |
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
| PlateIQ Category | Rating | Pitch Type | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 30.00 | 4-Seamer | 48 |
| SIERA | 4.72 | Sinker | 18 |
| K% | 20.70% | Cutter | 0 |
| BB% | 7.20% | Slider | 17 |
| GB/FB | 1.03 | Changeup | 16 |
| HR/9 | 1.90 | Curve | 1 |
| Hard% | 40.00% | Splitter | 0 |
See More Stats Made Simple for NYY vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium
So the Orioles were supposed to be playing the Marlins, but because the Marlins are a bunch of party animals the league decided to cancel those games and reward the Orioles with a couple of previously-unscheduled games against…the Yankees? Congrats, O’s! Seems like some BS, but we live in weird times.
JA Happ was supposed to make his first start of the season like 3 days ago, but because the Yankees’ games against the Phillies were called off he’ll go tonight in Baltimore instead. Happ saw his strikeout rate dip from 26.3% 2 years ago to just 20.6% last season, and he gave up 34 home runs in 31 games. His 4.72 SIERA was painfully average. While he gets a decent matchup on paper tonight against an Orioles lineup with some strikeouts in it, there is also some power here, especially against left-handed pitching.
Happ is also the most expensive pitcher on the slate on DraftKings at $10,400, which is some lunacy. This isn’t as good a pitching slate as we had last night, but I think we can find better options than a 5-figure JA Happ. $8,600 looks better on FanDuel, but I still think it’s a little much for a 37-year-old that was average or below-average in just about every category last season.
Quick Breakdown: Fade Happ in all formats on DK, while he’s essentially a GPP dart on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Analysis: (LHP | 188)
5800 DK ( 11.60% of cap) / 5800 FD ( 16.57% of cap) / 32 Y ( 16.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Rating | Statcast Metrics | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ: Overall | 46.26 | K | 22 |
| PlateIQ: Strikeout | 40.30 | BB | 80 |
| PlateIQ: Contact | 42.42 | xWOBA | 59 |
| PlateIQ: Production | 45.14 | xISO | 31 |
| PlateIQ: Discipline | 55.52 | Hard Hit | 85 |
| PlateIQ: Context | 29.68 | xERA | 64 |
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
| PlateIQ Category | Rating | Pitch Type | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 27.00 | 4-Seamer | 51 |
| SIERA | 5.02 | Sinker | 0 |
| K% | 19.00% | Cutter | 0 |
| BB% | 6.00% | Slider | 14 |
| GB/FB | 0.62 | Changeup | 29 |
| HR/9 | 1.34 | Curve | 6 |
| Hard% | 27.80% | Splitter | 0 |
See More Stats Made Simple for NYY vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium
was likely to be the Orioles’ Opening Day starter, but he’s been pushed back to tonight after having a tired arm. Seems like a bad thing to have if you’re a pitcher, but I suppose he gave it a few Red Bulls and now it’s good to go. Means posted a middling 19% strikeout rate last season, and he’s a fly ball pitcher that had a SIERA north of 5.00. He also allowed 23 homers in 31 games. While I don’t think he’s quite as bad as those numbers make him sound, he’s also making his first start of the year against a Yankee lineup stacked with right-handed power. Means is affordable at $5,800 on DK, but he’s also not quite cheap enough to get me too interested in a brutal spot.
Quick Breakdown: We don’t know how deep Means will pitch tonight, and he’s facing the Yankees. Seems like an easy answer.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: New York Yankees Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | Y Salary | wOBA | ISO | Hard% | Barrels/PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4400 | 3300 | 18 | 0.378 | 0.194 | 47.10% | 6.00% | |
| 4900 | 4100 | 20 | 0.382 | 0.267 | 57.10% | 10.70% | |
| 5100 | 3100 | 21 | 0.358 | 0.255 | 36.30% | 7.10% | |
| 5500 | 3800 | 19 | 0.416 | 0.268 | 47.20% | 12.50% | |
| 4200 | 2800 | 15 | 0.357 | 0.203 | 41.20% | 7.50% | |
| 4900 | 2900 | 16 | 0.337 | 0.284 | 41.50% | 11.70% | |
| 4600 | 2600 | 11 | 0.366 | 0.216 | 40.90% | 5.30% | |
| 4700 | 2400 | 14 | 0.326 | 0.211 | 36.40% | 5.90% | |
| Miguel Andujar | 4300 | 2500 | 7 | 0.114 | 0 | 21.60% | 0.00% |
Break down every NYY vs. BAL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Means was very good against his fellow lefties last season (.235 wOBA allowed), but righties had a .314 mark with 20 homers against him. Means has a quality change-up that he can use effectively against righties, but this is still baseball’s most powerful lineup taking on a lefty in a homer-friendly park. New York has an implied team total well over 6. They’ll be chalky, but with good reason. , , , , and all stand out as stellar plays right off the bat. , , Miguel Andujar, and are the guys we can expect to get at lower ownership that can help you fill things out. Any bat in this lineup is viable tonight.
Optimal Plays – , , , ,
Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, , ,
Stackability – BLUE
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Baltimore Orioles Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | Y Salary | wOBA | ISO | Hard% | Barrels/PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4200 | 2500 | 12 | 0.359 | 0.22 | 40.00% | 4.00% | |
| 3600 | 2600 | 14 | 0.321 | 0.115 | 17.70% | 2.50% | |
| 3100 | 2700 | 8 | 0.313 | 0.123 | 23.00% | 2.10% | |
| Anthony Santander | 4000 | 2700 | 17 | 0.321 | 0.22 | 36.20% | 5.70% |
| 3800 | 2600 | 11 | 0.323 | 0.215 | 39.70% | 7.20% | |
| 4000 | 2200 | 8 | 0.314 | 0.168 | 33.60% | 5.90% | |
| 3700 | 2200 | 7 | 0.259 | 0.145 | 37.40% | 5.10% | |
| 2600 | 2000 | 7 | 0.251 | 0.118 | 28.90% | 2.30% | |
| 2900 | 2000 | 7 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 17.00% | 1.40% |
Break down every NYY vs. BAL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
There’s definitely a chance JA Happ isn’t done being an above-average starter, but last season’s numbers have me thinking he’s probably done. The Orioles have an implied team total north of 4, so it’s not like they’re in a bad spot themselves. Happ allowed a .345 wOBA with 28 homers to right-handed hitters alone last season, which puts these Oriole righties in play. Anthony Santander, , , , and is not an impressive 5-man stack in terms of names, but all profile pretty well against a lefty with a wide split like Happ. is a dirt-cheap righty that can help you open things up if you need him down near the bottom of the order.
I hate to say it, but I don’t hate the idea of getting to some Orioles stacks on this slate.
Optimal Plays – , Anthony Santander,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Statcast Data referenced above per baseballsavant.com
