In the late 1970s, Fred Gluck led an effort to revitalize McKinsey’s thinking on strategy while, in parallel, Tom Peters and Robert Waterman were leading a similar effort to reinvent the Firm’s thinking on organization. The first published product of Gluck’s strategy initiative was a 1978 staff paper, "The evolution of strategic management."

The ostensible purpose of Gluck’s article was to throw light on the then-popular but ill-defined term "strategic management," using data from a recent McKinsey study of formal strategic planning in corporations. The authors concluded that such planning routinely evolves through four distinct phases of development, rising in sophistication from simple year-to-year budgeting to strategic management, in which strategic planning and everyday management are inextricably intertwined.

But the power of the article comes from the authors’ insights into the true nature of strategy and what constitutes high-quality strategic thinking. The article is also noteworthy for setting forth McKinsey’s original definition of strategy as "an integrated set of actions designed to create a sustainable advantage over competitors" and includes a description of the well-known "nine-box" matrix that formed the basis of McKinsey’s approach to business portfolio analysis.

Ten years later, a team from the Firm’s Australian office took portfolio analysis a step further. Rather than basing portfolio strategy only on metrics of a business unit’s absolute attractiveness, as suggested by the nine-box matrix, John Stuckey and Ken McLeod recommended adding a key new decision variable: how well-suited is the parent company to run the business unit as compared with other possible owners? If the parent is best suited to extract value from a unit, it often makes no sense to sell, even if that unit doesn’t compete in a particularly profitable industry. Conversely, if a parent company determines that it is not the best possible owner of a business unit, the parent maximizes value by selling it to the most appropriate owner, even if the unit happens to be in a business that is fundamentally attractive. In short, the "market-activated corporate strategy framework" prompts managers to view their portfolios with an investor’s value-maximizing eye.

The evolution of strategic management

Frederick W. Gluck, Stephen P. Kaufman, and A. Steven Walleck

A minor but pervasive frustration that seems to be unique to management as a profession is the rapid obsolescence of its jargon. As soon as a new management concept emerges, it becomes popularized as a buzzword, generalized, overused, and misused until its underlying substance has been blunted past recognition. The same fate could easily befall one of the brightest new concepts to come along lately: strategic management.

In seeking to understand what strategic management is, we have conducted a major study of the planning systems at large corporations. This study is unique in that it attempts to pass judgment on the quality of the business plans produced rather than only on the planning process.

We found that planning routinely progresses through four discrete phases of development. The first phase, financial planning, is the most basic and can be found at all companies. It is simply the process of setting annual budgets and using them to monitor progress. As financial planners extend their time horizons beyond the current year, they often cross into forecast-based planning, which is the second phase. A few companies have advanced beyond forecast-based planning by entering the third phase, which entails a profound leap forward in the effectiveness of strategic planning. We call this phase externally oriented planning, since it derives many of its advantages from more thorough and creative analyses of market trends, customers, and the competition. Only phase four—which is really a systematic, company-wide embodiment of externally oriented planning—earns the appellation strategic management, and its practitioners are very few indeed.

It doesn’t appear possible to skip a step in the process, because at each phase a company adopts attitudes and gains capabilities needed in the phases to come. Many companies have enjoyed considerable success without advancing beyond the rudimentary levels of strategic development. Some large, successful enterprises, for instance, are still firmly embedded in the forecast-based planning phase. You might well ask, are these companies somehow slipping behind, or are they simply responding appropriately to an environment that changes more slowly? The answer must be determined on a case-by-case basis.

Phase one: Financial planning

Financial planning, as we have said, is nothing more than the familiar annual budgeting process. Managers forecast revenue, costs, and capital needs a year in advance and use these numbers to benchmark performance. In well over half of the companies McKinsey studied—including some highly successful ones—formal planning was still at this most basic phase.

Note the word formal. Many firms that lack a sophisticated formal planning process make up for it with an informal "implicit strategy" worked out by the chief executive officer and a few top managers. Formal strategic planning, in fact, is just one of the possible sources of sound strategy development. There are at least two others: strategic thinking and opportunistic strategic decision making (Exhibit 1). All three routes can result in an effective strategy, which we define as "an integrated set of actions designed to create a sustainable advantage over competitors."

Phase-one companies, then, do have strategies, even though such companies often lack a formal system for planning them. The quality of the strategy of such a company depends largely on the entrepreneurial vigor of its CEO and other top executives. Do they have a good feel for the competition? Do they know their own cost structures? If the answer to such questions is yes, there may be little advantage to formal strategic planning. Ad-hoc studies by task forces and systematic communication of the essence of the strategy to those who need to know may suffice.

Phase two: Forecast-based planning

Still, most large enterprises are too complex to be managed with only an implicit strategy. Companies usually learn the shortcomings of phase-one planning as their treasurers struggle to estimate capital needs and make trade-offs among various financing plans, based on no more than a one-year budget. Ultimately, the burden becomes unbearable, and the company evolves toward phase two. At first, phase-two planning differs little from annual budgeting except that it covers a longer period of time. Very soon, however, planners become frustrated because the real world does not behave as their extrapolations predict. Their first response is usually to develop more sophisticated forecasting tools: trend analysis, regression models, and, finally, simulation models.

This initial response brings some improvement, but sooner or later all extrapolative models fail. At this point, a creative spark stirs the imaginations of the planners. They suddenly realize that their responsibility is not to chart the future—which is, in fact, impossible—but, rather, to lay out for managers the key issues facing the company. We call this spark "issue orientation."

The tough strategic issue that most often triggers the move to issue orientation is the problem of resource allocation: how to set up a flow of capital and other resources among the business units of a diversified company. The technique most commonly applied to this problem is portfolio analysis, a means of depicting a diversified company’s business units in a way that suggests which units should be kept and which sold off and how financial resources should be allocated among them. McKinsey’s standard portfolio analysis tool is the nine-box matrix (Exhibit 2), in which each business unit is plotted along two dimensions: the attractiveness of the relevant industry and the unit’s competitive strength within that industry. Units below the diagonal of the matrix are sold, liquidated, or run purely for cash, and they are allowed to consume little in the way of new capital. Those on the diagonal—marked "Selectivity, earnings"—can be candidates for selective investment. And business units above the diagonal, as the label suggests, should pursue strategies of either selective or aggressive investment and growth.

Phase three: Externally oriented planning

Once planners see their main role as identifying issues, they shift their attention from the details of their companies’ activities to the outside world, where the most profound issues reside. The planners’ in-depth analyses, previously reserved for inwardly focused financial projections, are now turned outward, to customers, potential customers, competitors, suppliers, and others. This outward focus is the chief characteristic of phase three: externally oriented planning.

The process can be time-consuming and rigorous—scrutinizing the outside world is a much larger undertaking than studying the operations of a single company—but it can also pay off dramatically. Take the example of a heavy-equipment maker that spent nine person-months reverse engineering its competitor’s product, reconstructing that competitor’s manufacturing facilities on paper, and estimating its production costs. The result: the company decided that no achievable level of cost reduction could meet the competition and that it therefore made no sense to seek a competitive advantage on price.

Phase-three plans can sometimes achieve this kind of dramatic impact because they are very different from the kind of static, deterministic, sterile plans that result from phase-two efforts. In particular, they share the following features:

1. Phase-three resource allocation is dynamic rather than static. The planner looks for opportunities to "shift the dot" of a business into a more attractive region of the portfolio matrix. This can be done by creating new capabilities that will help the company meet the most important prerequisite for success within a market, by redefining the market itself, or by changing the customers’ buying criteria to correspond to the company’s strengths.

2. Phase-three plans are adaptive rather than deterministic. They do not work from a standard strategy, such as "invest for growth." Instead, they continually aim to uncover new ways of defining and satisfying customer needs, new ways of competing more effectively, and new products or services.

3. Phase-three strategies are often surprise strategies. The competition often does not even recognize them as a threat until after they have taken effect.

Phase-three plans often recommend not one course of action but several, acknowledging the trade-offs among them. This multitude of possibilities is precisely what makes phase three very uncomfortable for top managers. As in-depth dynamic planning spreads through the organization, top managers realize that they cannot control every important decision. Of course, lower-level staff members often make key decisions under phase-one and phase-two regimes, but because phase three makes this process explicit, it is more unsettling for top managers and spurs them to invest even more in the strategic-planning process.

Phase Four: Strategic management

When this investment is successful, the result is strategic management: the melding of strategic planning and everyday management into a single, seamless process. In phase four, it is not that planning techniques have become more sophisticated than they were in phase three but that they have become inseparable from the process of management itself. No longer is planning a yearly, or even quarterly, activity. Instead, it is woven into the fabric of operational decision making.

No more than a few of the world’s companies—mainly diversified multinationals that manufacture electrical and electronic products—have reached this fourth phase. Perhaps the need to plan for hundreds of fast-evolving businesses serving thousands of product markets in dozens of nations has accelerated evolution at these companies. Observing them can teach executives much about strategic management.

The key factor that distinguishes strategically managed companies from their counterparts in phase three is not the sophistication of their planning techniques but rather the care and thoroughness with which they link strategic planning to operational decision making. This often boils down to the following five attributes:

1. A well-understood conceptual framework that sorts out the many interrelated types of strategic issues. This framework is defined by tomorrow’s strategic issues rather than by today’s organizational structure. Strategic issues are hung on the framework like ornaments on a Christmas tree. Top management supervises the process and decides which issues it must address and which should be assigned to operating managers.

2. Strategic thinking capabilities that are widespread throughout the company, not limited to the top echelons.

3. A process for negotiating trade-offs among competing objectives that involves a series of feedback loops rather than a sequence of planning submissions. A well-conceived strategy plans for the resources required and, where resources are constrained, seeks alternatives.

4. A performance review system that focuses the attention of top managers on key problem and opportunity areas, without forcing those managers to struggle through an in-depth review of each business unit’s strategy every year.

5. A motivational system and management values that reward and promote the exercise of strategic thinking.

Although it is not possible to make everyone at a company into a brilliant strategic thinker, it is possible to achieve widespread recognition of what strategic thinking is. This understanding is based on some relatively simple rules.

Strategic thinking seeks hard, fact-based, logical information. Strategists are acutely uncomfortable with vague concepts like "synergy." They do not accept generalized theories of economic behavior but look for underlying market mechanisms and action plans that will accomplish the end they seek.

Strategic thinking questions everyone’s unquestioned assumptions. Most business executives, for example, regard government regulation as a bothersome interference in their affairs. But a few companies appear to have revised that assumption and may be trying to participate actively in the formation of regulatory policies to gain a competitive edge.

Strategic thinking is characterized by an all-pervasive unwillingness to expend resources. A strategist is always looking for opportunities to win at low or, better yet, no cost.

Strategic thinking is usually indirect and unexpected rather than head-on and predictable. Basil Henry Liddell Hart, probably the foremost thinker on military strategy in the 20th century, has written, "To move along the line of natural expectation consolidates the opponent’s balance and thus his resisting power." "In strategy," says Liddell Hart, "the longest way around is often the shortest way home."

It appears likely that strategic management will improve a company’s long-term business success. Top executives in strategically managed companies point with pride to many effective business strategies supported by coherent functional plans. In every case, they can identify individual successes that have repaid many times over the company’s increased investment in planning.

About the Authors

Frederick Gluck was the managing director of McKinsey from 1988 to 1994; Stephen Kaufman and Steven Walleck are alumni of McKinsey’s Cleveland office. This article is adapted from a McKinsey staff paper dated October 1978.