Volcanologists can predict eruptions—if they have a thorough understanding of a volcano's eruptive history, if they can install the proper instrumentation on a volcano well in advance of an eruption, and if they can continuously monitor and adequately interpret data coming from that equipment.
How do you predict a volcanic eruption?
How can we tell when a volcano will erupt?
- An increase in the frequency and intensity of felt earthquakes.
- Noticeable steaming or fumarolic activity and new or enlarged areas of hot ground.
- Subtle swelling of the ground surface.
- Small changes in heat flow.
- Changes in the composition or relative abundances of fumarolic gases.
Is it difficult to predict volcanic eruptions?
It is difficult to gather enough data to find clear patterns in this wide range of volcanic behaviors. ... If their pre-eruption upticks occur as increases in gas and not in rumbling that can be picked up as seismic waves, then there is inadequate data to predict lead times and for researchers to issue warnings.
