A test score can predict an individual's behavior in a narrowly defined set of circumstances, and is said to have predictive validity when it yields consistent, reliable measurements. For example, an honesty test has predictive validity if persons who score high are later shown by their behaviors to be honest.

How do you know if a measure has predictive validity?

Predictive validity is determined by calculating the correlation coefficient between the results of the assessment and the subsequent targeted behavior. The stronger the correlation between the assessment data and the target behavior, the higher the degree of predictive validity the assessment possesses.

How do you establish predictive validity?

Predictive validity is typically established using correlational analyses, in which a correlation coefficient between the test of interest and the criterion assessment serves as an index measure. Multiple regression or path analyses can also be used to inform predictive validity.